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Right on the eve of his doing the right thing about Libya, I was critical of President Obama, but judging by the response and his need to go on national television last night to explain, he needed to get his ducks in a row before acting just in time against Gaddafy's use of forces loyal to him against his own civilian population both in areas of rebellion and in Tripoli, which he controls. Now, after a little more than a week, the U.S. did air strikes against his air force and army units that were attacking civilians, and is handing over the leadership of a No Fly Zone to NATO in which the U.S. will be playing a support role. The result of this is that the balance of power was shifted back to the rebellion, with Gadaffy's air force essentially destroyed. The alliance against him has been careful not to help the rebels either materially or to actually fight for them except to diminish Gadaffy's attacks against his own people and his offensive power generally. As Gadaffy has not offerend negotiation and as the same U.N. resolutions that enabled the attacks on his forces also impose sanctions on him, his family, and the regime he controlls, talk of his stepping down or being removed from power has continued. Since also he faces criminal prosecution for human rights violations, including one well-publicized rape of a priminent Tripoli woman by his security forces. it is likely that he will either be jailed or killed.
It is still not clear that the rebellion will drive him from power. If they get to Tripoli and take the city, maybe, but if they don't, then either someone within his stronghold would have to murder him, or he would have to be aprehended by international forces or killed by them. It might be messy if troops from the coletion have to fight in Libya to remove Gadaffy from power and it is very unlikely that Americans would be involved, but as the Arab League has sanctioned the actions and Arab countries have put aircraft against him, it could be the case that a force of Arab military would put to the field against him if the rebellion does not have the strength to overthrow him. All this remains to be seen.
TopThe Japanese are still struggling to control the four run-away water cooled nuclear reactors at Fukushima diachi on the East Coast of Honshu that is run by the Tokyo Electricity and Power Company (TEPCO), and the coverup game is as I said it would be in my last comment. Now, there have been dangerous radiation leaks and although the danger of a complete meltdown of one or of the four reactors on site seems to have passed, that is not absolutely clear as a propaganda game is still being played. Maybe all of the reactors will never come back on-line and that will be a huge loss to Japan which will take it years, maybe decades, to recover from. And, of course, even with its seismic history well known, the people who built the reactors underestimated the risks, and underdesigned the sea wall intended to protect the complex from the tsunami that destroyed the coolant pumps and backups that have caused the meltdown and containment breeches. Like the leaks from the reactor cores, we may not yet know how serious the real damage is because of the saving face done by the Japanese Government and the utility.
Just as trace amounts of the radioactive products of the leaks have been measured here in the U.S., the fallout for the nuclear industry is yet to be measured as plants of similar design exist here and close to active faults. There is a similar climate of mistrust of government and industry here and in Europe as well. Even David Letterman on "The Late Show" on CBS has several times criticized the Indian Point Power Plant on the Hudson just outside of New York which is on an historically active fault.
TopThese are indeed tulmutious times because the old guard, the aging leadership of corrupt regimes, is being flushed asside by the younger generation in the Middle East who having gotten the benefit of good education and with the global awareness of international news organizations and social media realize that they are getting a raw deal by people who want things done the old way.
In this country, even as it seemed that Conservatives would sweep in with fiscal restraint and opposing efforts to restrain international economic intersts, the increased warfare between generations and class warfare, may undo their plans. There are parallels to be drawn between the fight in Madison Wisconsin between public workers unions and the Republican Governor and Legislature to deny them collective bargening rights, and the fight of Middle Eastern Civilians with corrupt repressive regimes. The fights are similar in that they are over dwindling resources, but that a corner has been turned in the American political awareness that now more people realize that the Republican Party is anti Middle Class, and so if that is seen as the perception then maybe it will be swept out of power that it won in 2010 and reduced more in power than it was after 2008.
Certaintly many of the Middle Eastern regimes now under threat were allies of the U.S., especially economically, and that up to mow, the availability of their resources, especially oil, dominated policy. In fact, nothing may have changed, but it may be seen now, that to support the legitiamte aspirations of the citizens of those nations as an alternative to corrupt Crony Capitalist Strongmas Regimes or Al Quaida, serves the interest of keeping access to those resources, with the risk that it changes the terms of the negotiation.
Wheather the Meme of the Duopoly in American Politics has changed, that people here are seeing a parallel of Crony Capitalism with Wall Street Banks and the leaders of both political parties, which needs to be changed like the old guard of many other nations in the Middle East, and China and Iran are next, it remains to be seen that the same change in perceptions has made its way here and that our system is not immune from the same dialectic. It may be that the Conservatives have done what is needed to reactivate the trade union movement and at least a reasonable opposition to unfettered Capitalism can now emerge now that so many people have been disadvantaged by a system that has become rigged.
One way this can work out within our system is by a relentless disclosure of conflicts of interest that result in failure ot lead and act, as the problems at energy companies and repeated coverups by business and government of mistakes made with more of an eye to political power and business profit than to the welfare of the populations affected by them. This is not that different from the process in the Middle East which it would resemble more and more if the institutions of government here come to be seen to be just as disfunctional. These things have a way of simmering under the radar and then suddenly erupting into view. Those with the most to lose, those with the greatest vested interest would be blindsided with the reaction. The Collapse of 2008 was not the sort of thing that could cause this, although its effects might ultimately do so. Maybe it takes some domestic disaster caused by greed and neglect and a coverup attempt to discredit the current political process.
I think that perceived disadvantage created by decline of economic opportunity is a profound catalyst for discontent of the kind which sweeps establisnments from power. Which establishments get removed in this way depends on how perceptions get shaped, and the powerful have less control over this than they believe they have.
TopI am still trying to figure out what FaceBook really means. I haven't given up the view that it is really a fraud and that like any other riot that it is for ephemera, only, and to try to have a reasonable conversation above the din is hopeless. I haven't learned how commenting is controlled, only that there are most threads in which you cannot make comments and wondering if people disalow you to comment without you finding out they have. It is not USENET or email. I have been critical from the start that FB does not support threads, but it may be far less useful as a result, and ultimately not worth the effort. I thought that getting glimpses of what people you know, your children and other family, might be valuable, especially if you respet their privacy, but I have doubts that even that is useful. With the exception of seeing pictures of a new grand nephew, I haven't found much said by people I know there to be all that interesting. A great big negative about FB is that posts there last only a month or so and short of saving a page of what you wrote there with a browser there doesn't seem to be an easy way to save off a conversation.
Recent news stories about "FaceBook Depression" have appeared in which the anxiety created in young users of the social networking site in which they are not getting attention causes the blues. Most people are susceptible to this more or less and the design of the site seems to encourage some of this. The best way to deal with it is to use it with restraint and to modulate your use according to what you can contribute and according to the response or lack of it that you get. It becomes a question of where your effort pays off, and factors such as not being able to control the style, may be significant as you may decide to write for yourself as I am doing here, with no expectation that anyone will ever read it, but at least I can compose here with a style I find pleasing, both in how much I say and how it appears in the browsers.
I may edit threads I wrote on FB as posts here, if I can rip apart the HTML from the saved pages.
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